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Arla Foods is launching a new industry leading online farmer milk forecasting tool for AFMP members which has achieved a 97 per cent accuracy rate in trials.
The new web-based tool will enable members to forecast more accurately and help to manage surplus milk volumes as raw milk supplies from the Partnership move towards 90 per cent of Arla’s total requirements.
The model, devised over the last two years, is based on NMR data which has been analysed by Nottingham University and is derived from the lactation curves of over half a million cows which has ensured that the raw data provided a large enough sample to create as accurate a model as possible.
Trials which have been conducted with over 30 AFMP members have given invaluable feedback in the development of the tool and ensured that it is as clear and easy to use as possible, taking only 10 minutes to fill in.
Mark Morgan, Arla’s milk procurement manager, said: “It is a simple model which is easy to use and at the same time is accurate in allowing milk supply to be forecast more precisely.
“The 97 per cent accuracy rate is very encouraging in comparison to forecasts carried out by consultants or members themselves which are significantly lower.”
John Cook, an AFMP member who was involved in the trials, commented: “The tool will be useful because it is designed to let members make adjustments and fine-tune the figures to suit their own herd. The format is very clear and easy to use and can also assist members with their on-farm planning.
“I am very keen on forecasting and have always put a lot of effort into trying to ensure that my milk production forecasts are accurate. The result from the trial was incredibly accurate compared with my own forecast and it took me less time to produce.”
The tool is being demonstrated to members on Arla Foods Milk Partnership’s stand at the Dairy Event will go live on September 7.
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